
Base metals
Price summary
LMEcopperpriceaveraged$4.15/lboverthecourse
of2024,andrangedfromapeakof$4.90/lbreached
inMaytoalowof$3.66/lbinFebruary.
FastmarketsMBalloy-gradecobaltpriceaveraged$15.6/lb
in2024,andstandardgradecobaltaveraged$12.2/lb.The
alloy-gradepricerangedbetween$14.0/lband$17.0/lb,
whilestandardgradewasbetween$10.7/lband$13.7/lb.
LMEnickelpriceaveraged$7.63/lb,andreachedamaximum
of$9.68/lbinMayandaminimumof$6.75/lbinDecember.
Commentary
Throughout 2024, the base metals that Ecora has direct
exposure to were impacted by various market forces with
each metal’s price performance somewhat correlated to the
maturityofitsendmarket.Themessetinmotionduring
2023 continued into 2024, most notably in nickel and cobalt
markets where oversupply from single geographies led to
fallingprices.
Mined copper production experienced a modest increase
ofapproximately2%in2024.Growthbenefitedfroma
constrainedoutputin2023aswellaslarge-scalemining
projects coming online in the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC),BotswanaandMongolia.Copperoutputfromthe
DRCisestimatedtohavegrownby10%drivenbythe
ramp-upofKinsanfuandexpansionsoftheTenke
FungurumeandKamoa-Kakoamines.Thefirsttwomines,
ownedbyChinesestate-ownedentityCMOC,produce
cobaltasaby-product,andtheirrisingoutputwasakey
factorforthesurplusseeninthismarket.
The minor increase in mined copper production was
accompanied with a substantial increase in smelting
capacity, particularly in China where capacity rose by
approximately12%intheyear,intensifyingcompetition
forcopperconcentrates.Capacityoversupplyledtoa
sharpdropintreatmentandrefiningcostsassmelters
battled to secure feedstock, reaching the lowest levels in
atleasttwodecades.
TheInternationalCopperStudyGroupindicatesrefined
copper demand grew at a similar rate to copper production
during 2024, curtailed by the continued slowdown in the
Chinesepropertymarketandmanufacturingsectors.
Electrificationtrendssuchastheroll-outofEVs,renewable
energy infrastructure and data centre hubs continued to
gaintractionthroughouttheyear.
Electrificationisforecasttodrivecopperdemandgrowth
overthenexttenyearsatanannualisedrateof2.6%.Itis
expected that the three key demand centres will evolve,
withtraditionalvsenergytransitionvsdigitalforecasttobe
split71%-23%-6%by2050comparedtothecurrentsplitof
92%-7%-1%.
Cobalt, whilst exposed to many of the same trends as copper,
experiencedayearoflowprices.Sinceitispredominantly
producedasaby-product,itssupplyisnotnecessarily
correlatedtodemand.WiththeDRCaccountingfor
approximately80%ofglobaloutput,therecentsurgein
DRCcopperactivitywithby-productcobaltproductionhas
had a material detrimental impact on cobalt prices – estimated
tohavereached50-yearlowsafteraccountingforinflation.
Incentivised by the demand for copper concentrates,
CMOC’sramp-upandexpansionofKinsanfuandTenke
Fungurume saw annual cobalt output from these mines
doublecomparedtoayearearlier.Alongsidegrowthfrom
Indonesia’s nickel operations, this was responsible for global
cobaltsupplysurgingbyapproximately30%yearonyear,
enablingthemarketsurplustoreachanunprecedented53kt.
Inordertoreducethesurplus,theDRCGovernment
introducedafour-monthcobaltexportbaninFebruary
2025,enablingpricestoreboundintheearlypartofthe
year.Thereisthepotentialforannualexportquotasto
follow,whichcouldhelpbringthemarketfurtherintobalance.
Cobalt’s application in high performance batteries,
smartphones and other electronics remained resilient
despitereducedconsumerspendingpower.Thedemand
for superalloys in the aerospace and defence market also
continuedtorecoverfollowingCOVID-19,helpingtosupport
alloygradeprices.
TheEVsectorremainsasignificantconsumerofcobalt,
althoughtheincreasingadoptionoflithium-iron-phosphate
battery technologies, particularly in China, weighed on
demand.Thedepressedpricehasledbatterymanufacturers
to prolong the use of cobalt in EV batteries due to the
increasedsafetyandperformancelevels.TheCobalt
Institute forecasts cobalt demand from batteries to more
thantriple,andaccountfor60%ofoverallcobaltdemand
by2050.
9Ecora Resources PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2024
Strategic report – Governance report – Financial statements