
An overview ofour markets
Royalty financing continued its role in bridging the capital gap to the mining
sector during 2023. Capital markets remained very challenging globally,
with equity markets generally depressed, few IPOs launched, and credit
conditions tightened particularly in the second half of the year.
1
Catastrophic and natural
catastrophic risk
2
Investment approval
3
Future demand
4
Commodity prices
5
Operator dependence
and concentration risk
6
Geopolitical events
7
Financing capability
8
Stakeholder support
Key to strategy
Commodity selection
Investment framework
Portfoliodiversification
Capital allocation
OUR MARKETS
The cost of capital in the sector,
combined with the increased
requirement for capital after two years
ofgenerationally high levels of inflation,
resulted in an increased pressure on
smaller operators in the sector. The
collapse in equity ratings for less liquid
stocks, along with the significantly higher
cost of debt (if available) resulted in an
increased demand for alternative forms
of financing. This resulted in ~$2.2bn of
royalty and stream transactions during
the year. This dynamic looks set to
continue in 2024, as equity markets
generally remain tough, interest rates
arelikely to remain higher for longer.
Thelatter has resulted in reduced
valuations for development projects in
particular as future cash flows continue
to be discounted at a higher level.
Within the mining universe, base metal
and bulk commodities suffer more as
precious metal projects tend to have
lower capex costs and shorter
development time horizons. Furthermore,
the precious metals sector tends to
benefit from more favourable equity
ratings both at operator level and at
royalty company level. It was no surprise
therefore that of the $2.2bn of royalty
and stream transactions executed during
the year ~83% of these were in the
precious space.
Competition within the precious space
has remained high, most noticeably in
the sub $1bn market capitalisation range
where a number of junior royalty
companies compete for smaller ticket
size acquisitions. For this reason, the
Group chooses to focus on the non-
precious space where fewer companies
compete for the same transaction and
access to capital is making the deal
environment more favourable.
Within this subsector, pricing for certain
commodities has corrected noticeably
for certain commodities such as lithium,
nickel and cobalt. Other than for lithium,
the nickel market has been disrupted by
the recent and sudden supply increase
from Indonesia which has created a
market imbalance with greater supply
and pricing has fallen accordingly. This is
placing margin pressure on many
previously profitable nickel operations,
with some shutting (noticeably in
Australia) and others revisiting their
capital requirements. Declining
commodity environments like this can
lead to increased demand for royalty and
streaming financing which is less dilutive
than equity and less intrusive than debt,
which can enable smaller operators to
weather a downturn in the price cycle.
Conversely, for royalty and streaming
businesses, this represents a much
morefavourable price entry point
against a backdrop of favourable
investment conditions.
In terms of M&A activities, some of the
larger non-precious operators have
begun to diversify more into future
facing commodities. We have seen BHP
acquire Oz Minerals, Glencore and Teck
Resources agree a business combination
on coal assets and Rio Tinto
consolidating its stake over their
Mongolian copper project. This wave of
M&A activity by the majors could well
continue in the years ahead as they
leverage their size and access to capital.
An active M&A environment is also a
favourable backdrop for royalty and
streaming businesses as this creates
aneed for liquidity.
As is always the case for the natural
resource sector, demand is key. In this
respect a slow down in the Chinese
economy coupled with two serious
international conflicts creates a lot of
uncertainty for domestic policies such as
those around compulsory adopting of
electric vehicles and transition timelines
and commitments to net zero. This saw a
reduction in demand for electric vehicles
in certain markets in 2023 which
coincided with a moment of additional
supply for key battery commodities.
However, lower commodity prices are
likely to make certain battery chemistries
more economical with the potential of
lowering the cost of adoption – which in
its own right could trigger renewed
demand in future periods.
For the royalty and streaming
businesses, particularly those investing
outside of the precious space, the pull
back in pricing experienced over the past
twelve months arguably presents an
opportune investment point which can
result in significant value accruing should
markets return to supply demand
equilibrium in the near-term.
Key to principal risks
8 Ecora Resources PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2023